Analyzing essential fundamental data and seasonal pattern, condensing it into a single, straightforward signal.
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The Approach
Simplify complex interconnections into a single, understandable result.
The complete data input converts into a simple signal with 2 points for the fundamental data plus one separate point for the seasonal analysis. Fundamental data primarily detects reversals while seasonal data also works within intact trends. Designed for efficiency, the scoreboard allows users to grasp the status of an asset instantly. Such clarity enables the formulation of more strategic investment choices or the organization for a trader of the upcoming trading day(s).
Valuable For Trading & Investing
The main purpose of the score is to identify significant reversal points in commodities before they happen. Additionally, it provides insights into the strength and continuity of existing trends.
Robust Approach And Backting
A robust approach was selected when backtesting various datapoints and evaluating weighing methods. This careful methodology prevents overfitting, leading to a more reliable outcome. As a result, the framework is positioned for more promising outcomes in the future.
Broad Variety Of Data Covered
Processing a vast array of insights while completely ignoring technical indicators (which would disqualify the signal as fundamental). It features well-established elements such as the Commitments of Traders (COT) Report, market sentiment, intercorrelation analysis, various valuation models and Consumer Demand Trends, along with lesser-known data (that serves as the secret sauce if you will). For identifying tipping points, however, Open Interest and Trading Volumes are being included.
Advanced Seasonality
This seasonal patterns extend beyond a mere review of historical data at a given timeframe. They integrate various seasonal models and logical frameworks, interlinking them with diverse valuations to provide a comprehensive analysis.
Past Results
The gallery display five randomly selected commodities and their historical signals. It clearly illustrates both the significant potential but also it's limitations (there is no picture perfect forecast). Achieving confluence is essential in this context.
The light green/red background in the charts indicate that the 1st Stage of the signal is active, while the dark red/green signifies the 2nd Stage. Past performance for seasonal pattern is coming soon!
Australian Dollar
Wheat
Palladium
Soybean Oil
Crude Oil
Please note - EdgeSum was created apart from active trading and investing (utilizing the same methods outlined here and fulltime-trading for many years). While there is much more to come soon, being engaged in the markets remains priority.